US Dollar Falls Back from Highs, Copper Prices Rebound Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,041/mt overnight, initially fluctuating slightly upward to a high of $9,081/mt during the session, then fluctuating downward to a low of $9,019/mt near the close, and finally closing at $9,044/mt, up 0.8%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest was 271,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2501 contract opened at 74,160 yuan/mt overnight, initially dipping to 73,970 yuan/mt, then fluctuating rangebound to a high of 74,210 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closing at 74,120 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest was 146,000 lots. Macro side, since Trump nominated Bessent as Treasury Secretary last week, US Treasury bonds rebounded yesterday. The 10-year Treasury yield saw its largest single-day drop since early August, and the 2-year Treasury yield also fell, weakening the US dollar's interest rate advantage. The US dollar fell back from a two-year high yesterday, and copper prices rebounded. Fundamentally, supply side, domestic copper cathode arrivals significantly decreased, and with today entering the next month's invoice trading, month-end long-term contract deliveries are mostly completed, and suppliers' willingness to sell is weak, limiting the supply of spot copper cathode. Demand side, according to SMM data, the destocking trend in major warehouses nationwide was evident over the weekend. As of Monday, November 25, SMM copper inventories in national major regions fell by 28,000 mt to 133,000 mt compared to last Thursday, but total inventories were 74,000 mt higher compared to 59,000 mt in the same period last year. Price side, with Trump appointing Bessent as Treasury Secretary, who has publicly supported a strong US dollar and tariffs, the exchange rate may only fall back temporarily. Copper prices are expected to face resistance today.